Intelligence wars have always been about mixing truth with falsehood to confuse opponents. For instance, CIA agents intercepted news that a Soviet informant was visiting Iran and attempting to sell chemical weapons. Only the first part was true — the latter was deliberately fabricated by the KGB to mislead and divert CIA attention.
This intelligence was a prized secret, painstakingly obtained by the CIA. But for the KGB, masters of deception, the more valuable something seemed to the Americans, the louder they made the noise, as if afraid the CIA might not discover it. In truth, the so-called secret was fake intelligence, a KGB-crafted mirage. How could they possibly let the CIA easily learn anything genuinely valuable?
After confirming the information, CIA Director Woolsey excitedly phoned President Mario to report the discovery.
"Are you saying Iran is now secretly trading chemical weapons with the Soviet Union?" Mario stood up and paced by the phone. "Is this confirmed? Director Woolsey, are you telling me the truth? This could be the breakthrough we've been waiting for."
The U.S. had long sought a real excuse to sanction Iran. While the nuclear issue had been a headline for years, the administration never had conclusive evidence to convince Congress. Now, a chemical weapons deal was the perfect pretext to interfere in Iran's regime.
"Yes, Mr. President. This gives us the opening to escalate pressure and sanctions on Iran," Woolsey said, hardly able to hide his excitement. "I've achieved what my predecessor couldn't: finding a real reason to act, and potentially winning over another socialist ally."
"Don't send this intel out tonight," Mario warned. "We don't want Iran to know what we know. Director Woolsey, keep digging. We need more intelligence — everything."
As Mario hung up, his mind raced: should the U.S. rely on covert CIA operations, or prepare for direct military intervention in the Middle East?
The U.S. economy was still faltering under Mario's administration, but he wasn't focusing on economic reform. Instead, he eyed Bush's Gulf War strategy — divert public attention with foreign conflicts while controlling oil through covert influence.
Yet, some Middle Eastern countries resisted U.S. dominance, threatening Mario and his backers.
Later that day, the White House spokesman announced publicly that the U.S. had evidence Iran was trading weapons of mass destruction and warned of increased economic sanctions and military pressure.
"If Iran does not relinquish its WMDs, the U.S. will consider further deterrent measures," the spokesman said.
Noticeably, the official statement went beyond the intelligence. It wasn't just that Iran was trading chemical weapons; the U.S. claimed Iran already possessed them. The government had no real interest in understanding Iran's chemical capabilities — the goal was to justify sanctions and increase pressure.
Rafsanjani had tried desperately to improve relations with the West, but his efforts were strangled both by the Soviets and by Iran's internal anti-American factions.
Khamenei, on the other hand, was unbothered by sanctions. He saw an external crisis as an opportunity to eliminate moderates like Rafsanjani.
Iran had cut ties with the U.S. since the revolution; the government cared little about Washington's stance or threats.
The Soviet Union aimed to nurture a strong anti-American faction in Iran to create a foothold in the Middle East. Yanayev didn't care if these allies embraced communism or not. Moscow lacked leverage in the distant region but saw value in disrupting U.S. plans.
After all, if the Soviets couldn't secure a good outcome in Afghanistan, why expect one in the Middle East?
Still, the Soviet Union expressed official positions with care.
At a press conference, when asked about U.S. sanctions on Iran, Yanayev scoffed:
"The U.S. has been spouting nonsense for too long. They might even produce a test tube of white powder and claim it's proof of Iran's weapons of mass destruction. Perhaps it's just laundry detergent."
"We welcome economic cooperation with all countries. The U.S. and Europe are not the only trading partners in the world. When you rely too heavily on economies led by the U.S., you hand over your future."
While Yanayev's words were dismissed by the West, to Iran — struggling under sanctions — they signaled a valuable olive branch.
Rafsanjani's anxiety grew. Economic sanctions strangled Iran's lifeblood: oil and natural gas exports. The risk of economic collapse and social chaos loomed large. The U.S. had successfully used this strategy before, and Iran's peace efforts seemed doomed.
Then Khamenei confronted Rafsanjani.
"At this point, do you still want peaceful coexistence with the U.S.?" Khamenei's words cut deep. "They see us as a threat and a religious cancer. You want to curry favor with them? Your policy has failed."
"The U.S. only desires a secular regime close to the West," Khamenei continued. "In their eyes, our Islamic system is heresy."
"Enough, Khamenei! You're dragging Iran into an abyss," Rafsanjani replied. He saw Khamenei as a monster, a war provocateur. He also suspected Khamenei leaked their secret Soviet talks.
"Have you not seen what happened to Saddam?" Rafsanjani said bitterly. "We cannot match the Americans in open warfare. They defeated Iraq in weeks after eight years of brutal war."
Khamenei smiled grimly. "True, but in guerrilla warfare, the Americans lost in Vietnam. Nothing is absolute. If they attack us, we will not fear. Allah is with Iran."
Rafsanjani heard the subtext in Khamenei's words.
"So what do we do? Strengthen arms," Khamenei pressed. "Since they accuse us falsely, we might as well have those weapons."
"And," he added, "we must find new political partners. Iran cannot face the U.S. alone."
Rafsanjani's pale lips parted, but Khamenei cut him off.
"The Soviet Union will become the world's loyal ally," Khamenei said calmly.