The first major turning point in this altered timeline came in 1992, during the U.S. presidential election. Although President Bush was actively seeking re-election, his diplomatic failures over the previous year had severely damaged his public standing. The reputation he had painstakingly built during the Gulf War was completely eroded. At the same time, the ongoing domestic economic downturn further fueled public dissatisfaction with his leadership.
The Vantaa incident, the Arctic crisis, and the aggressive Soviet propaganda campaign had deeply shaken Bush's presidency. Some even went as far as labeling him the greatest Communist sympathizer hiding within the United States—a traitor to the free world. This sharp decline in Bush's popularity handed a golden opportunity to the Democratic Party, which saw a real chance to unseat the Republicans after their twelve consecutive years in power. Ambitious and energized, the Democrats began mobilizing to take the White House in one decisive election.
The contest between the Democratic and the Republican was charged with tension, with each candidate quietly building momentum toward the ultimate prize—the U.S. presidency.
Among the Democratic hopefuls, Mario Cuomo emerged as the front-runner. Party members generally viewed him as a stronger candidate than Clinton, who was also vying for the nomination. Even the Soviet Union closely monitored this political battle, recognizing that Bush's defeat was increasingly inevitable and that the Republican grip on power was slipping. This had encouraged a field of Democratic candidates eager to win.
To better understand the stakes, Yanayev personally summoned Chirkov, the director of the First Bureau of Soviet Foreign Intelligence and an expert on American affairs. Yanayev asked him to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of Mario and Clinton. Curiously, Yanayev skipped any discussion of Mario's connections with Zongs and focused instead on Clinton, whose competitive position was weaker.
In a private meeting, just the two of them, Chirkov spoke cautiously. "Overall, Mario's advantages far surpass Clinton's. His reputation and influence within the Democratic Party are much stronger. If Mario secures the nomination, his chances against Bush in the general election rise significantly."
Chirkov added, "Mario's and Bush's campaign slogans are quite similar—they both emphasize foreign policy and seem to attempt to divert attention from the poor domestic economy by focusing on external threats. Clinton, by contrast, focuses his campaign on domestic issues, which plays to his advantage."
Yanayev frowned. "That's dangerous. I've already changed the timeline drastically, yet Mario is running on foreign policy despite the economy being the biggest concern. Doesn't he realize that?"
Chirkov nodded. "The U.S. economy is in decline, so voters naturally prioritize economic issues—they want bread, not bombs. Bush is tied to defense and arms lobbies, which explains his stance. But Mario doesn't have that financial backing. How can he possibly outmatch Bush?"
"The ideal outcome," Chirkov continued, "is that Clinton is eliminated early, leaving Bush and Mario to face off. The worst is that Clinton's popularity crushes both in the first round."
"So, Mario is likely to lose this election," Chirkov concluded logically, mirroring Yanayev's own thinking. Historically, Bush and Clinton were the two leading candidates, with Clinton gaining ground late in the race.
Yanayev pressed further, "What does your intelligence say about Mario?"
He was curious because, no matter what, Mario's potential presidency posed less of a threat to Soviet interests than Clinton's. Clinton's eight years had been marked by booming economic growth and aggressive global policies that positioned the U.S. as the dominant world power. A militaristic president might seem advantageous in the short term, but over time, such strategies drain the U.S. economy—a situation the Soviet Union, focusing on its own economic development and stability, preferred.
Chirkov answered, "Mario Cuomo, currently governor of New York, promotes the Soviet threat theory and favors a hardline approach toward European allies. He has a hot temper, and his foreign policy is radical—almost dictatorial. His campaign rhetoric suggests he wants to maintain Greater America's global dominance at any cost, possibly even more aggressively than Bush."
"This is why his vote totals lag behind both Bush and Clinton. His radical platform fails to resonate in an economy that's already weak. It explains why he has vocal support within the party but poor actual voter backing."
Mario sounds a lot like a Trump figure—polarizing, aggressive, and unlikely to soften U.S.-Soviet relations. But Yanayev welcomed such candidates. If the U.S. economy couldn't recover, he was willing to be the catalyst pushing it into ruin. No matter how strong, a sustained series of wars would cripple the American economy. The Vietnam War nearly destroyed it, and it was only the Reagan administration's efforts that turned the tide. Without that, the U.S. might have been much weaker.
"The Soviet Union now has countless options in the Middle East, just waiting for the United States to jump in," Yanayev said thoughtfully.
"That's our man," he continued. "The Soviet Foreign Intelligence Service has tried everything to steer him toward the presidency. We need this lovable redneck who loves militarism to take control of the U.S. government. The question is: can the Foreign Intelligence Service find a way to adjust his campaign strategy? For example, shift it to slogans and policies that resonate better with the American public's desire for economic revival? Let Mario talk about the economy—the thing Americans actually care about."
Dai Erkov, who had studied American politics and presidential elections for over a decade, nodded. "Mr. President, we already have a network in the United States that can influence elections. It's an investment group founded here. They identify promising candidates and invest heavily to support them."
Yanayev smiled. "Excellent. So, we just need to design a campaign strategy tailored for Mario and then get him to buy into it. Simple enough."
Patting Dai Erkov on the shoulder, Yanayev added, "This is a glorious and difficult task, Comrade Dai Erkov."
"I won't let the party or the country down," Dai Erkov said, energized.
"As long as we become Mario's political donors, our agents can reach him directly. Then, we can propose a set of slogans and policies designed to win him over. Convincing Mario depends on our agents' skills. Whether he ultimately becomes President depends on the will of the people. All we can do is do our best—and leave the rest to fate."
Yanayev felt both relieved and a bit puzzled. If congressional elections could be manipulated this way, then surely, with such a narrow margin, the Soviet Union's secret interference could tip the presidential race as well. Could it be that Bush Jr. and Bush Sr. were actually the biggest communist spies in the United States?
He smiled wryly. "I hope this redneck gets elected President. Compared to Clinton, he's a much more lovable character."