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Chapter 22 - Fourth Amateur Bout - Predictability

The venue felt familiar enough to be deceptive.

Same canvas texture. Same ring lights humming faintly overhead. Same ritual of wrapping hands, rolling shoulders, waiting for the call. Joe moved through it all without friction, his body settling into routine the way it always did before a bout. Nothing felt wrong. Nothing felt sharp or heightened.

That should have warned him.

Across the room, his opponent warmed up with an economy that was easy to miss. No bouncing. No shadowboxing flourishes. Just short steps, gloves lifting and settling, eyes tracking space rather than people. Joe noticed it, registered it, and dismissed it without thought.

Correct fighters often looked like that.

They touched gloves.

The bell rang.

Round One

Joe established the jab immediately.

It lifted, hovered, extended halfway, and returned—barrier first, contact second. The timing was familiar, drilled into muscle memory through weeks of repetition. The jab touched glove, then forehead, then glove again. Joe pivoted lightly, denying angle, holding ground without force.

The opponent circled cautiously, reading distance, absorbing information. He stepped in once and met the jab cleanly on his guard. Joe pivoted and reinserted the barrier.

Cause and effect worked exactly as expected.

Joe felt the quiet satisfaction of control settle in. His breathing stayed even. His legs felt responsive, not strained. The rhythm belonged to him.

Midway through the round, the opponent tried to step through the jab.

Joe placed it earlier and caught him cleanly on the forehead. The contact wasn't heavy, but it was precise. The opponent blinked and adjusted.

Joe didn't chase.

The round ended with Joe landing more, holding center, dictating pace. The crowd responded politely—no roar, but recognition. Joe returned to his corner breathing evenly, heart rate elevated but calm.

The trainer nodded once.

Round Two

Joe resumed the same pattern.

The jab lifted on rhythm, neither rushed nor delayed. He pivoted just enough to deny angle, just enough to stay balanced. The opponent pressed slightly more this round, testing proximity, stepping in behind his guard.

Joe answered with the same solution.

It worked.

But something shifted.

The opponent began to meet the jab differently—not catching it outright, but letting it slide. Sometimes he leaned back just enough for it to graze. Sometimes he stepped inside half a beat later, after the jab had already returned.

Joe noticed the timing difference and adjusted nothing.

He stayed composed.

The opponent landed a light counter—short, compact—after one of Joe's jabs. It brushed Joe's forearm rather than landing cleanly, but it disrupted the rhythm.

Joe reestablished it immediately.

The rest of the round stayed close, but Joe still edged it. His jab landed often enough. His pivots kept him safe. He finished the round without taking anything significant.

Still, the rhythm felt slightly less cooperative.

Joe sat in the corner and listened to his breath.

The trainer said nothing.

Round Three

The opponent stopped reacting.

That was the first clear sign.

Joe lifted the jab and the opponent didn't flinch. He waited, eyes steady, feet planted. Joe extended the jab anyway, touching glove. The opponent stepped inside immediately afterward and placed a short counter on Joe's shoulder.

Not hard.

Precise.

Joe pivoted and reset, reasserting the barrier. The opponent repeated the sequence—wait, let the jab come, step in after.

Joe felt irritation flicker.

He shortened the jab slightly, trying to deny the counter window. The opponent adjusted again, leaning just enough to let the glove pass before stepping in from a different line.

The exchanges grew quieter.

Joe was still composed. Still balanced. Still technically correct. But the jab no longer interrupted momentum—it announced itself.

The opponent landed another short counter, this time to the body. Joe absorbed it without reaction and answered with a jab that landed cleanly.

It didn't change anything.

The crowd noise flattened, attention sharpening rather than swelling. This was no longer about control. It was about reading.

The round ended with neither man visibly ahead.

Joe returned to his corner breathing harder than before, not from exertion but from concentration. His legs felt fine. His lungs felt fine.

Something else felt off.

Round Four

Joe made no dramatic changes.

He trusted discipline.

The jab lifted on the same rhythm. The pivot followed. The stance stayed compact. Everything remained technically sound.

The opponent began to counter more confidently.

Not aggressively. Not recklessly. Just often enough to matter. Each jab Joe threw was met with a response—sometimes a short punch to the body, sometimes a light tap to the arm, sometimes just a step that crowded Joe's preferred space.

Joe absorbed pressure calmly and answered when he could. He took light shots and delivered light shots in return.

The difference lay in effect.

Joe's punches landed.

The opponent's punches changed things.

Each counter disrupted Joe's timing just enough to force a reset. Each step inside denied Joe the clean exit his pivots usually provided.

Joe stayed composed.

He did not panic. He did not overextend. He did not abandon structure.

He simply became less effective.

The opponent began to score more cleanly, not by throwing more, but by choosing moments better. Joe noticed the pattern and tried to vary his jab timing slightly—half a beat faster, then slower.

The opponent adjusted again.

The bell rang.

Joe sat in the corner, chest rising and falling steadily. Sweat dripped from his chin. His legs felt warm, not fatigued.

The trainer leaned in slightly. "You're being read."

Joe nodded.

Round Five

Urgency arrived quietly.

Not as desperation, but as awareness.

Joe stepped out with intent, lifting the jab earlier, trying to establish presence before the opponent could settle. The opponent waited, eyes steady, then stepped inside after the jab again, landing a clean counter to Joe's body.

Joe answered immediately, choosing to trade rather than reset. The exchange grew closer, messier. Gloves slid off shoulders. Forearms tangled.

Joe felt the cost of proximity accumulate.

He pivoted out and reestablished position, breathing controlled, posture intact. The opponent followed, unhurried, comfortable now in the knowledge that the jab no longer dictated terms.

Joe pushed pace slightly.

He stepped in behind the jab and threw a short follow-up, committing more than before. The punch landed, but the opponent countered again, catching Joe on the arm and stepping inside.

Joe felt frustration rise—not panic, not fear. Frustration at being correct and ineffective at the same time.

The round ended close.

Joe returned to his corner and listened to the crowd murmur. His breath stayed steady. His mind raced.

Round Six

The final round began with clarity.

Joe needed to change something.

He didn't know what.

He stepped out and lifted the jab again—habit stronger than intention. The opponent read it immediately and countered with a short punch that landed cleanly on Joe's shoulder.

Joe stayed composed and answered with a jab of his own.

The exchange repeated.

Joe tried to press harder, stepping in after the jab, forcing proximity. The opponent accepted it, landed a body shot, and pivoted out, leaving Joe to reset again.

Joe felt the seconds slipping.

He increased urgency without abandoning discipline. He stepped in more often, choosing to trade when counters came instead of disengaging. He took light shots to deliver his own, accepting contact without flinching.

The crowd responded now—not with cheers, but with attention sharpened by tension.

Joe landed clean punches.

They did not accumulate.

The opponent remained composed, adjusting mid-exchange, stepping just enough to deny Joe clean sequences. Each time Joe found a rhythm, it was disrupted within moments.

The final minute approached.

Joe knew he needed something decisive—not spectacular, but undeniable. He stepped in behind the jab again, this time letting it linger, trying to draw a response he could exploit.

The opponent didn't give it.

He stepped inside and countered cleanly, then disengaged without damage.

Joe pressed again.

The opponent answered again.

The bell rang.

They stood in the center of the ring, chests rising and falling, sweat-darkened shirts clinging to skin.

Joe felt no collapse. No sense of having failed physically. His breath remained steady despite the work. His posture stayed upright.

The referee raised the opponent's hand.

A narrow loss on points.

No boos. No outrage. Just acknowledgment.

Joe nodded and touched gloves with his opponent, who returned the gesture with quiet respect. The man stepped through the ropes and left the ring without visible marks—no swelling, no redness that lingered. He looked as if he could have continued another six rounds.

Joe stepped down more slowly.

As he sat on the bench and unwound his wraps, the realization arrived without drama.

He had been correct.

His movement had been clean. His jab had been placed properly. His composure had held.

None of it had made him dangerous.

Correctness had made him predictable.

The opponent hadn't beaten him by force or aggression or superior conditioning. He had beaten him by understanding what was coming and choosing moments that mattered more than volume or form.

Joe stared at his hands, the tape loosening around knuckles that had done exactly what they were trained to do.

The lesson settled in quietly, heavier than disappointment.

Being correct was not the same as being threatening.

Discipline, without adaptation, invited anticipation.

Joe stood and slung his bag over his shoulder. As he left the venue, he glanced back once at the ring—already being cleaned, canvas wiped of sweat and marks.

His opponent was gone.

Unmarked.

Victorious.

And Joe understood, finally, that boxing did not reward correctness for its own sake. It rewarded those who could change while remaining composed—those whose discipline served curiosity rather than replacing it.

He stepped into the night air with his breath still steady, carrying the knowledge that what had brought him this far would not carry him any farther unless he learned to become dangerous again.

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