Chapter 33: A Moment of Doubt (November 1940)
The panic was real. In the Continental Investment Bank's quiet office, the chaos of Wall Street came right through the telephone lines and the clicking stock ticker. The price of Coca-Cola stock kept falling, dragged down by the massive sugar-rationing rumor.
Arthur Vance sat at his desk, perfectly still. He was the anchor in the storm, but everyone else was close to sinking.
Elias Thorne was the first to break. He walked into Arthur's office without knocking, his face pale and slick with sweat despite the cool November air.
"Arthur, we have to sell," Elias said, his voice low and tight. He wasn't asking; he was begging. "It's down to $\$35.50$ a share! We bought most of our stake around $\$40$! We are looking at a paper loss of nearly $14,000 on our investment, and it's getting worse every hour!"
The loss Elias referred to was the money they had earned—the income from the Boeing dividend—that had been invested in the Coca-Cola stock operation. That $\$14,000$ represented almost 10% of their operational cash, the very money they needed to run the bank. Losing it would not kill the bank, but it would damage their reputation before they even started their next deal.
"They are right to panic," Elias continued, looking out at the anxious S&T staff. "They see a disaster. They see a company that can't make its product. Arthur, if this rumor is true—if Washington doesn't honor the secret deal—we will be blamed for this failure. The trust will look reckless. We will lose everything we built!".
Elias was seeing the immediate, 1940 reality. Arthur was seeing the 2025 outcome.
"Elias, sit down," Arthur said, his voice so quiet it forced Elias to lean closer. "Look at me. What is the single hardest part of this entire process?"
"The trust, the lawyer, the age limit…"
"No," Arthur interrupted. "The hardest part is patience. The hardest part is sitting still when every single person around you is screaming for action."
Arthur picked up a pencil and tapped the ledger where he tracked the trades. "We are not losing money, Elias. We are transferring it. We transferred $\$150,500$ from the Boeing income into Coca-Cola stock. That money hasn't disappeared; it's just priced wrong. We know the true price is much higher because we know the secret."
"But what if we are wrong about the secret?" Elias insisted. "The research team hasn't called yet! That's why we need to sell now, cut the $\$14,000$ loss, and keep the remaining $\$70,000$ in capital safe! It's the safe thing to do under the trust rules!"
Arthur let a faint smile touch his lips. "You are trying to be a good lawyer, Elias. You are forgetting how to be a founder. The trust's money is not in danger. That $\$5$ million is safe, perfectly preserved as the capital of the bank. This $\$70,000$ is risk capital, earned income. We risked it to get more, not to keep it safe."
He paused, letting his logic sink in. "Do you think the big rival banks are selling right now? No. They started this rumor! They want to buy the shares cheap too! If we sell now, we are selling to the same smart people who are causing the panic. We give up our shares for cheap, and they win."
The Staff's Nerves
Arthur had calmed Elias for a moment, but the doubt was everywhere else. Frank, the head of S&T, and Mr. Davies from Research came in next.
"Mr. Vance, we have concerns," Frank said, gripping his hat tightly. "Our team is nervous. When the stock drops this fast, the natural urge is to sell before the disaster is complete. If we hold these shares, and they go to $\$20$, we will lose all the profit we made from the Boeing deal, and the entire stock operation will be a failure."
"That is the amateur's thought process," Arthur said, his tone kind but firm. "The market is not a place for feelings. It is a place for facts. What are the facts?"
"Fact One: There is a sugar-rationing rumor," Davies said.
"Fact Two: The stock price is falling because of the rumor."
"Fact Three: We have confirmed through internal bank records that our current income spent on Coca-Cola is over $150,000, and we are sitting on a severe paper loss of over 9%."
Arthur nodded at their facts. "Good. Now, what is the most important, unconfirmed fact?"
"That the military guaranteed the sugar supply," Frank answered.
"Correct," Arthur said. "That one fact is worth more than all the trading data combined. If that fact is true, the market is wrong, and every seller on Wall Street is making the biggest mistake of the year. Do you want to join them?"
Arthur walked over to his ledger. He pointed to the remaining $\$70,000$ in capital they had left from the Boeing income.
"This money is our bullet," Arthur explained. "We do not fire the bullet until we know exactly where the target is. We have taken the pain—the paper loss—so that we can get a huge discount. Every dollar the stock falls is a dollar we save when we finally start buying. The only way to truly fail is to lose your nerve and sell the truth for a lie."
He looked at the anxious faces of his staff. He knew he was asking them to defy everything they had ever learned about markets, which was always: cut your losses.
"This bank is built on information," Arthur said, his voice rising just slightly. "We have the information. We must trust the information. Elias and I have agreed: we will not sell. We will not panic. We will hold our shares, we will wait for the research team's confirmation, and the minute that phone rings with the truth, we will buy every share we can find at this panic-price."
The Waiting Game
Arthur's absolute, unnerving certainty was like a thick wall against the storm of doubt. Elias slowly backed out of the office, still worried, but now silenced. Frank returned to the S&T desk, ready to hold the line.
But the waiting was torturous. Day after day, the stock ticker showed red. The paper loss crept up to $\$16,000$, then $\$18,000$. The income spent on the initial position felt like it was dissolving. The entire bank sat on the edge of ruin, solely because one 18-year-old was absolutely sure of a fact he remembered from 85 years in the future.
Arthur spent the time preparing the paperwork for the next major buy order. He calculated exactly how many shares they could acquire with the remaining $\$70,000$ if the stock hit its lowest point at $\$35$ a share. The total was staggering—if he was right, they could double their ownership in a single day, using only their profits.
He knew that the silence from the Research team was the worst sign. It meant the information was hard to get. Every moment the price fell was an opportunity, but every moment was also a terrible risk. Arthur had told his staff that panic was a mistake. Now, he had to live that advice himself. He closed his eyes, reminding himself of the B-17 bomber, the most important product in the coming war, and the unlimited demand for a refreshing soda. He knew what was coming. He just needed the final word.