November 29, 2002, Manhattan, New York.
Rodney sat at his desk, wearing a crisp white dress shirt that looked freshly pressed and a tie adorned with a silver pin, staring at the monitors in front of him.
On the four monitors lined up side by side, the three major indices, along with the charts of stocks the fund had invested in, were constantly moving up and down without pause.
Meanwhile, on the Bloomberg terminal to one side, news from all over the world poured in like waves in real time.
Unlike before, when international oil prices had surged due to the war and fears of a global economic downturn had driven the stock market into a relentless plunge, all three major indices had now hit bottom and were rebounding sharply.
Contrary to initial expectations, signs were emerging that the Iraq War would end early as a short-term conflict. As a result, oil prices—which had been weighing heavily on the stock market—lost momentum and began to fall rapidly.
On top of that, growing anticipation for the reconstruction projects in Iraq after the war further fueled optimism in the stock market.
Investors cheered at the strong rally that had continued for three consecutive days, but Rodney's reaction was different.
Instead, he narrowed his eyes slightly, staring at the monitors with an uneasy and unsettled expression.
At that moment, as if breaking the silence, the intercom bell installed on one side of the desk rang briefly.
[Chief Investment Officer Klein has arrived.]
At the voice of his female secretary coming through the speaker, Rodney reached out with one arm, pressed the intercom button, and spoke.
"Send him in."
[Yes.]
Before long, the door opened and CIO Klein, dressed in a suit, stepped inside.
Rodney rose from his desk and gestured with his chin toward the sofa in the room.
"Have a seat first."
"Yes, sir."
Rodney sat down first in the central seat, crossing one leg over the other, and Klein, the CIO, followed and took a seat on the sofa to the right.
Leaning back against the soft sofa, Rodney opened his mouth and asked,
"What is it?"
"The stock market's rebound has continued today as well, and the upward momentum is only getting stronger."
Rodney met his gaze with an expressionless face.
"So you're saying this isn't just a technical rebound—the index has turned into an upward trend, and we should close our short positions."
Klein, the CIO, leaned forward slightly as he responded.
"Yes. Unlike yesterday, when a large volume of profit-taking sell orders poured out during the rebound, today, there are far more investors stepping in to buy stocks in anticipation of further gains. Given that, it seems highly likely that the upward trend will continue for the time being."
"With both oil prices and the war—major negative factors that had been weighing down the stock market—being resolved at the same time, and with institutions having already dumped all their stop-loss holdings that accelerated the crash, the supply burden is low. I also think there's significant momentum for further gains in many respects."
As if agreeing with the assessment, CIO Klein quickly nodded.
"Although the timing is a bit late, the returns are still decent even if we exit now, so I suggest we close out our positions and get out at this point."
However, Rodney, wearing a somewhat uneasy expression, tapped lightly on the armrest of the sofa he was sitting on before speaking.
"Let's watch the situation for a few more days before making a decision."
At the unexpected answer, CIO Klein frowned.
"As much as you hesitate, the returns will be significantly eaten away."
"I know that as well."
"Then what exactly are you hesitating for?"
When Klein asked with a frustrated expression, Rodney crossed his arms, and his face stiffened slightly.
"The market is recovering from its decline and turning bullish, yet the Eldorado Fund—no, Chairman Park—continues to maintain his position. That's what's bothering me."
"I find that part puzzling as well, but if we keep worrying about the Eldorado Fund, we might completely miss the timing."
Even so, as Rodney continued to hesitate, unable to make a firm decision, CIO Klein spoke again, as if trying to persuade him.
"The Eldorado Fund entered short positions first, so they still have plenty of room to maneuver, but we don't. And just because he's Chairman Park doesn't guarantee that he always gets the timing right."
Judging by the market conditions, as Klein had said, it was indeed the right move to lock in profits and exit at this point.
However, even though he thought so rationally, Rodney couldn't shake off his unease about Seok-won's decision to continue holding short positions regardless of the market's movement.
That was why, even as the rising index steadily eroded their returns, he was unable to make a firm decision and continued to hesitate.
"If it's Chairman Park as I know him, then he's definitely seeing something we don't and is convinced that the stock market will crash again."
"What kind of negative factor could possibly drag the index down?"
At Klein's question, Rodney showed a bitter expression.
"If I knew that, I wouldn't be agonizing over it like this right now."
No matter how much he thought about it, nothing in particular came to mind.
Still, he couldn't just let it pass like this—the way Seok-won was acting kept bothering him, making him uneasy.
Letting out a sigh, Rodney proposed a compromise.
"Let's watch it for just one more week. If no significant negative factors appear by then, we'll cleanly close our positions and exit."
CIO Klein remained silent for a moment before nodding.
"Understood."
At the unexpectedly compliant response, Rodney looked at him with a puzzled expression, and Klein shrugged his shoulders.
"To be honest, the Eldorado Fund's actions have been bothering me as well."
"You felt that too?"
"Not only have their results been remarkable, but they were also the very first to predict this crash and take short positions, weren't they? Yet even as the index hit bottom and started rising, they remain completely indifferent. It can't help but feel unsettling."
"Exactly."
Rodney nodded in agreement.
He felt relieved to know he wasn't the only one who found it strange, but at the same time, realizing that he was acknowledging deep down that Seok-won was one step ahead of him left a bitter taste in his mouth.
Suppressing that unpleasant feeling, Rodney steadied himself.
"We'll find out whether it was excessive worry or if there really is something going on by watching a bit longer."
***
December 4, 2002.
With the dazzling night view of Seoul spread beyond the large floor-to-ceiling window across from him, Seok-won was running on the treadmill installed inside his home, exhaling in steady breaths.
"Huuk. Huh."
Each time his shoulders rose and fell, the thin T-shirt soaked with sweat revealed the contours of his well-defined muscles.
Clearing his mind of all distracting thoughts and focusing solely on his breathing and the sound of his footsteps, the sharp ringing of his phone suddenly broke the silence.
Picking up the phone placed on the stand, Seok-won checked the name displayed on the screen, and his eyes gleamed.
As he pressed the deceleration button, the rapidly spinning belt gradually slowed down, and in sync, Seok-won also eased his running pace.
When the machine came to a complete stop, he lightly stepped off the treadmill and wiped the sweat flowing down the back of his neck and along his jaw with a towel before pressing the call button to answer.
"Go ahead."
Hearing his rough, uneven breathing, Landon let out a low exclamation and spoke.
[Were you exercising?]
"I was just doing a light run."
[Then you probably haven't heard the news yet.]
Seok-won hung the towel over the treadmill handle and frowned slightly.
"Did something happen?"
At that, Landon spoke with clear excitement in his voice.
[At the OPEC emergency meeting held in Vienna, Austria, they've decided to cap next year's average daily oil production at 25.4 million barrels. Not only are they reversing the previous production increase measures, but they've also just announced a decision to cut output by 2 million barrels per day.]
Seok-won, who had been about to open a bottle of water to take a drink, suddenly froze and asked back,
"OPEC has already announced production cuts?"
[That's correct. Contrary to expectations, the damage to Iraq's oil fields wasn't severe, so if the war ends as things stand, oil exports will quickly return to normal. That would lead to an oversupply and a sharp drop in international oil prices, so they've taken preemptive action.]
Holding the phone to his ear, Seok-won nodded slightly.
"That's not wrong. Once the war ends, economic sanctions on Iraq will naturally be lifted, and oil exports will be freed as well."
After the Gulf War, Iraq had been unable to sell more than 2.2 million barrels of oil per day overseas due to the United Nations' oil export restriction policy, known as the "Oil-for-Food Program."
"If I remember correctly, Iraq's daily oil production capacity was 3.1 million barrels, right?"
[That's correct. With the lifting of export restrictions, Iraq's oil output would increase by an additional 900,000 barrels per day. When combined with the increased production that OPEC had announced before the war, the numbers roughly add up.]
"That would be the case if Iraqi oil production returns to normal."
Seok-won curled up one corner of his lips and smirked.
[Along with the production cut announcement, OPEC stated that their desired oil price is in the $24 per barrel range. They also mentioned that, depending on future market movements, there could be additional production cuts until that level is reached.]
At that, Seok-won let out a scoff and replied,
"Considering that the production cost of oil in Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, is below five dollars, it's practically the same as openly declaring that they'll manipulate supply to sell oil at higher prices."
[That's a fair way to see it.]
Since it wasn't the first time OPEC had acted this way, taking advantage of its near-monopoly over oil supply, Seok-won asked calmly,
"How is the market reacting?"
[It hasn't been long since the production cut announcement, but perhaps because of expectations that oil consumption will decrease due to the global economic slowdown, international oil prices have not shown any significant changes yet.]
"Even if OPEC cuts production by 2 million barrels as announced, it would only reduce the surplus supply. The market probably doesn't believe it will lead to an actual shortage of oil."
Seok-won said this with a deep smile.
"But once negative factors begin to pile up one by one, people will realize that the situation is taking a turn for the worse, and oil prices will surge upward."
[I think so too.]
"Still, it's fortunate that the production cut announcement came after we had already fully established our positions."
[Exactly. When we heard that OPEC was holding an emergency meeting, I thought they might just reverse the production increase, but I never expected them to go as far as announcing actual cuts.]
"That just means the oil-producing countries are dissatisfied with the current price levels."
[Well, it's still lingering in the low $20 range, so it's understandable.]
Of course, Seok-won had no reason to be concerned with their perspective.
"Are we continuing to accumulate shares of oil companies whose stock prices have plunged due to the drop in oil prices?"
[Yes. We are aggressively buying not only the underlying stocks but also call options.]
"Once oil prices surge again, they'll generate significant returns, so make sure to scoop up as much as possible while they're cheap."
[Understood.]
After giving a few more instructions and ending the call, Seok-won raised the water bottle to his lips and swallowed deeply.
Then, gazing out at the night view beyond the window, he thought,
'Soon, as negative factors begin to erupt one after another, the soaring international oil prices will shake the global economy.'
Reflected in the floor-to-ceiling window, Seok-won's eyes gleamed with a burning intensity.