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Chapter 2424 - Doors

You have been poisoned.

There are three balls before you. Two contain more poison and one contains the antidote. After picking one, one of the other two is revealed to be poison. You are given the option to repick your choice. Why should you always repick?

The easiest way to understand the Monty Hall Problem is by extending it to 1000 balls (still with just one antidote). The likelihood of picking correctly on your first try is 0.001. If then out of the other 999 balls, 998 poison ones are removed, the final ball is going to be the antidote almost every single time. More specifically, in 99.9% of cases, it will be correct.

In the original version with 3 balls, the odds of picking correctly after switching are thus 2/3.

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